Arms Build-up in East Asia: A Rational Choice

Arms build-up in East Asia still happens. August, 31 2007, Japan Ministry of Defense proposed military budget J¥ 4.82 million. The budget will be used for research in stealth aircraft technology and modernize 32 Japan’s fighter aircraft, F-15.

August 23, 2007, Taiwan announced their military budget will be boost to 341,1 billion dollar Taiwan. It will be used for purchasing 12 anti-submarine aircraft P-3C Orion and new F-16. And on March 2007, PRC (People’s Republic of China) announced they will increase their military budget as much as US$45 billion for purchasing aircrafts and warships.


A Rational Choice
In international relations studies arms build-up can be analyzed using Prisoner Dilemma Theory. The theory explains the condition of stalemate that faced by two or more states, in fact, having a chance to resolve their conflict. Because there is a lack of communication and confidence-building happen.

In the condition of conflict, states only have two options: 1) resolve their conflict by cooperation or; 2) modernizing their weapons to prevent the worst. Each option result in three different conditions: first, if all states (A and B) choose the former, the conflict will be end. This condition can only occur when there is communication among the states.

Second, if A chooses the former and B chooses the latter, B will have advantage to destroy A. Third, if all states choose the latter option, they will be trap on an arms race or arms build-up. The second and the third condition only take place when there is a lack of communication among the states. Without communication, the latter option is rather rational than the former because they can minimize their possible loss.

Prisoner Dilemma assumes states think rationally, that is “maximizing their advantage and minimizing their loss”. So, in the condition of conflict and there is no a way to communicate each other, the most rational strategy is “Minimax”. The principle of “minimax” strategy is “minimizing the maximum possible loss”.

The Prisoner Dilemma is occurring in East Asia region. In this region there are no effective spaces for inter-states communication and confidence-building through multilateral or bilateral mechanism. ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) haven’t worked effectively to provide communication and confidence-building for its members. ASEAN, who expected to be driving force in ARF, hasn’t ability to work their works. ASEAN still has problem for their internal, in which the members never have confidence for each others. It can be shown in ASEAN Charter. The Charter that expected to be adhesive instrument for mutual-understanding among ASEAN members hasn’t signed until now. Because all members still have distrustful among them. Besides, ASEAN hasn’t enough power against the major powers such as, Japan, China and US in ARF.

APEC has same problem. APEC cannot be expected to be effectively multilateral institution for resolving state conflict in the region because, recently, APEC is like institution that lives in between life and death. Besides, APEC hasn’t a vision about what they would do and where they would go.

Meanwhile, bilateral mechanism for conflict prevention that is just built by Japan, US and PRC still needs examination for its effectiveness. US and PRC have agreed to build closest military cooperation with the aim to reduce distrustful between them. However, the effectiveness of agreement is doubted because US want PRC is more transparent with their military modernizing policy but PRC is still reluctant to give it.

And at the end of August, 2007 Japan and PRC agreed to build confidence between them and open a hotline. But, by the same token, the effectiveness of instrument is doubtful because the problem of transparency.

Likewise, the Taiwan conflict never shows progressiveness. The new mechanisms for resolving conflict never come and some indicators indicate the cross Strait relations are going worst. Taiwan always released statements that made PRC passed Anti-Secession Law on March 4, 2005 to prevent Taiwan’s independence.

Conclusion
So, without effective mechanisms to communicate and to prevent conflict, East Asia region will face “minimax” strategy option as the rational choice for the states to protect their self from their enemies. This strategy was taken by the states with the aims, first, as deterrence instrument. And second, to minimize the possible loss if the conflict is escalating to inter-state war. In other words, arms build-up is a natural condition in East Asia compare with what is recently occur in the region.

wendy andhika